Expert Says Belarus Currently Poses No Immediate Threat of Offensive Against Ukraine

There is currently no direct threat of a Belarusian offensive against Ukraine, as Minsk is well aware that joining the war would carry enormous military and political risks. This assessment was shared by military analyst Denys Popovych during an interview on Ukrainian Radio.

According to Popovych, one of the key factors restraining Belarus is China, which maintains considerable influence over the Belarusian leadership. He argued that Beijing has no interest in Belarus becoming an active participant in the war because it could disrupt vital trade routes between China and Europe.

"It is absolutely not in China's interest for Belarus to enter active combat operations, as this would complicate the flow of Chinese goods to European markets," Popovych said.

The analyst also commented on reports that Belarus is forming new air assault brigades, including one near Gomel, about 40 kilometers from Ukraine's border. He believes this development does not represent a credible threat of a large-scale invasion.

According to Popovych, a single brigade of roughly 2,000–3,000 troops would not be capable of conducting a major offensive against Ukraine. He stressed that Belarusian authorities understand the serious consequences that direct involvement in the war could bring.

Instead, Popovych suggested that Minsk may be attempting to demonstrate loyalty to the Kremlin or create the appearance of military activity along the border in order to force Ukraine to keep additional troops deployed in the north rather than reinforcing other sectors of the front.

The expert also questioned the combat readiness of the Belarusian military, arguing that it lacks modern battlefield experience, particularly in the use of unmanned aerial systems.

"They have little practical experience with drones and limited capabilities to counter them. Much of the Belarusian military still operates according to Soviet-era doctrines, while modern warfare has evolved significantly," he said.

Despite ongoing military activity in Belarus, Popovych concluded that there are currently no indications of preparations for an immediate offensive against Ukraine, although Ukrainian defense forces continue to closely monitor the situation along the northern border.